Will she finally win best actress?

Maria is finally streaming on Netflix after months of Oscar buzz Angelina JolieJolie's performance – but what are the chances of Jolie finally winning Best Actress? After Jackie and Spencer, Maria is the latest biopic by director Pablo Larraín that narrates the tragic life of an important woman in the history of the 20th century, completing his unofficial trilogy. This one stars Jolie as opera singer Maria Callas, alongside Haluk Bilginer as Aristotle Onassis and Caspar Phillipson as John F. Kennedy. The trailer for Maria was released in September, and Jolie fans have been eagerly awaiting the film's release on Netflix ever since.

When Maria Premiered at the 81st Venice International Film Festival earlier this year, it received mostly positive reviews, with critics singling out Jolie's performance with particular praise. This led to widespread Oscar buzz surrounding Jolie's turn Maria. After being released in select U.S. theaters on November 27, the film is now streaming on Netflix. Now that more people will be able to see it, Oscar buzz should start to become a little more mainstream. But what are the chances of Jolie actually winning Best Actress in her turn? Maria?

Angelina Jolie is nominated for a best actress Oscar for Maria – but she's not the favorite to win

Mikey Madison has a better chance of winning best actress in 2025

Jolie is one of the actresses predicted to receive a Best Actress nomination at next year's Oscars, but she is not the favorite to win. The odds for the 2025 Best Actress nominees were posted by GoldDerby, who doesn't actually accept Oscar bets despite posting odds for them. The current favorite to win Best Actress is Mikey Madison for her powerful performance as the titular sex worker who becomes embroiled in a whirlwind romance in Sean Baker's acclaimed dramedy. anora. GoldDerby puts Madison's odds of winning Best Actress at 19/5, while Jolie is right behind her with odds of 9/2.

Karla Sofía Gascón has odds of 5/1 to land a Best Actress nomination for the musical thriller Emilia PérezNicole Kidman has an 8/1 chance of being nominated for the romantic drama Little babyand Cynthia Erivo has 10/1 odds of being nominated for the blockbuster Broadway adaptation Evil. Jolie is ahead of these three actors in her chances of winning Best Actress for Mariabut she's still a little behind Madisonwhich remains the favorite. DraftKings puts Madison's odds at -160 to win. It's clear the industry has picked a favorite, but that won't end until Oscar night.

The release of Maria on Netflix could increase her chances of winning best actress

More people will see Maria when it comes out on Netflix

In recent months, the only people who have been able to see Jolie's performance in Maria it was industry elites who attended film festivals and audiences in the small towns where it was released in theaters. Now this Maria is streaming on Netflix, so many more people will be able to see it. This type of increase has been seen in the past with previous Oscar contenders released by Netflixas Marriage story, May Decemberand The power of the dog.

The buzz surrounding Jolie's performance should start to build as more casual viewers see the film and start discussing it on social media. This online discussion should put Jolie's Oscar enthusiasm on par with the enthusiastic discourse surrounding Madison's performance in anora and Erivo's performance in Evil. Jolie is one of the biggest movie stars in the world and Maria It's your payback role. When fans who missed her in her absence get a chance to see it, the excitement surrounding her Oscar prospects should increase.

What Angelina Jolie's Oscar Story Means for the 2025 Best Actress Race

Jolie Never Won Best Actress, But She's a Legacy Choice

Although this is Madison and Gascón's first run-in with the Oscars, Jolie has a long history with the Academy. This is similar to her other Best Actress contenders; Erivo has already been nominated for Best Actress and Best Original Song for Harrietand Kidman has been nominated for Best Actress a total of four times (she was nominated for Moulin Rouge!, Rabbit Holeand Being the Ricardosand she won by The hours) and Best Supporting Actress once (for Lion). Jolie has been nominated in the Best Actress category before, but she only won the award for Best Supporting Actress.

Jolie won Best Supporting Actress for Girl, interrupted in 2000, and she was nominated for Best Actress for Beast Boy in 2009, but she lost to Kate Winslet by The reader. She also won the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award in 2014. At this point, it seems clear that Jolie will be nominated for Mariabut it is unclear whether she will win. There is a legacy angle that could lead the Academy to vote for Jolie. 2025 could be the year when Angelina Jolie finally wins the Best Actress award or the year in which she repeats the disappointment of her 2009 defeat.