The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez have been the large winners of 2025 Golden Globehowever one is extra prone to take dwelling the Oscar for Greatest Image than the opposite. Emilia Pérez took dwelling 4 awards on the Golden Globes - probably the most of any movie on the ceremony - whereas The Brutalist took dwelling three in a second place end. The Brutalist is a sobering historic epic a couple of Holocaust survivor who pursues the American dream after an enduring tragedy, whereas Emilia Pérez is against the law musical a couple of Mexican cartel boss who seeks gender transition.
The Globes separate their classes into “Drama” and “Musical or Comedy”. The Brutalist swept the Drama classes, together with Greatest Actor and Greatest Director, whereas Emilia Pérez swept the Musical or Comedy classes, together with Greatest Supporting Actress and Greatest Unique Music. They have been the one two movies to win in a number of classes. Each took dwelling Greatest Image of their respective classes, which is often indicator of how the Academy will vote for Greatest Image on the Oscars. Globe wins result in each Oscar success, however which movie is in one of the best place to win Greatest Image?
The Brutalist's Golden Globe win is greater for the 2025 Oscars than Emilia Pérez's
The Academy prefers drama over musical or comedy
Traditionally, The BrutalistHuge win on the Golden Globes places it in higher place to win Greatest Image on the Oscars than Emilia Pérez. The delineation of Drama and Musical or Comedy didn't all the time exist on the Golden Globes, however since that system got here into impact, the Academy favored the Drama winner way more than the Musical or Comedy winner. The Globe Drama winner matched the Greatest Image Oscar winner 40 out of 81 instances, whereas the Musical or Comedy winner solely matched the Greatest Image winner 11 out of 72 instances.
The Globe Drama winner matched the Greatest Image Oscar winner 40 out of 81 instances, whereas the Musical or Comedy winner solely matched the Greatest Image winner 11 out of 72 instances.
The Academy has all the time had a definite bias in opposition to comedy. There are exceptions, in fact, when the Oscar awards comedies: Birdman gained Greatest Movie; Emma Stone gained Greatest Actress for Poor issues; Mel Brooks gained Greatest Unique Screenplay for The Producers. However the Academy has all the time favored darkish dramatic works like The Brutalist as an alternative of extra quirky and humorous movies like Emilia Pérez. The Academy has an extended historical past of awarding movies that cope with the horrific story of the Holocaust, which doesn't bode nicely for Emilia Pérezthe race in opposition to The Brutalist.
Brutalist and Emilia Pérez's probabilities of successful an Oscar are higher after the Golden Globes
Each are pioneers in a number of classes
The BrutalistAdrien Brody has a a lot better probability of successful Greatest Actor on the Oscars after successful in that class at Globo. Likewise, its director Brady Corbet boosted his Oscar possibilities for Greatest Director after taking dwelling the award on the Globes. Emilia PérezZoe Saldaña will possible win Greatest Supporting Actress on the Oscars, after successful in that class on the Globes.
Emilia Pérez might repeat its Golden Globe wins for Greatest Worldwide Movie and Greatest Unique Music on the Oscars, as a result of it's simply the preferred contender in both of these classes. If each movies really win these classes, it might assist construct a case for both of them to win Greatest Image. Nonetheless, the Academy might view Greatest Worldwide Movie as a comfort prize for Emilia Pérez and provides one of the best photograph to The Brutalist as an alternative ofjust like what occurred with The zone of curiosity final yr.
The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez might nonetheless struggle to win greatest image on the 2025 Oscars
There's a preferential vote to be thought of with one of the best photograph
The Golden Globes can generally point out which movie will win the Oscar's prime prize, however that's not all the time the case. In 2024, the winner of Greatest Image on the Oscars, Oppenheimeraligned with the winner of Greatest Movie – Drama on the Golden Globes. However the 2023 Greatest Image winner, Every little thing in every single place on the similar timedidn't line up with any of the Golden Globe winners, The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin. Winner of Greatest Movie of 2022, CODEdidn't line up with any of the Golden Globe winners, The ability of the canine and West Facet Historical past.
On the subject of the Greatest Image Oscar, there's preferential voting to think about. All of it is determined by which movies Academy voters personally most well-liked. The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez are each movies that won't appeal to voters and find yourself on the backside of the pollsleaving extra favorable movies like anora or Conclave probably rise. The winners in Golden Globe They're indication of what Oscar voters' leanings can be, however they're on no account a definitive prediction.