Rock Movie Comparisons and What It Means

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Rock Movie Comparisons and What It Means

Dwayne Johnson’s new Christmas action movie is in theaters, and given his track record of blockbusters, RedThe opening weekend’s box office performance is notable for its current standing in Hollywood and the future. The Rock has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the wave of franchises and intellectual properties that has dominated much of Hollywood for more than a decade. After being part of great successes such as Fast and Furious and Jumanjihe returns to the realm of potential original franchise starters, with Redis ending leaving room for more.

With the release of the film by Amazon MGM in theaters, the public can watch Red in theaters before heading to streaming. This means that the film – initially destined for Prime Video – is subject to box office analysis. In recent years, this would have been a welcome move for Dwayne Johnson, as he was a clear box office draw who could help resurrect franchises and bolster their financial performance. After its opening weekend at the box office Redthe performance suggests a major disappointment. However, comparisons between The Rock’s films and other factors suggest there is more to the story.

Red One made $32 million in its opening weekend – but the budget is more than $200 million

Dwayne Johnson’s Christmas movie lived up to expectations

Opening on November 15, 2024, RedThe opening weekend of November 15th to 17th yielded a box office that is more or less successful depending on the metrics evaluated. Put Mojo Box Officethe film grossed just over $32 million at the domestic box office during its first three days in theaters. This was more than enough to Red to debut at number one at the box officeknocking down Venom: The Last Dance. The performance comes off Friday’s $10.9 million haul (including Thursday night previews), with the remaining $21.1 million coming in on Saturday and Sunday.

On the surface, a $32 million opening weekend for RedThe box office is mediocre. It’s a number that isn’t entirely spectacular, but it’s also in line with the film’s box office projections, which put it in the $30 to $40 million range at various points. The film came in at the low end of those projections, which isn’t great, but it’s also a small victory to say that there was no less interest than initially expected. 2024 saw films like Joker: Folie a Deux and The fallen guy opened below expectations, so The Rock’s film avoided doing that.

The biggest problem for Red earning $32 million at the box office in its opening weekend is that the film cost so much more to make. RedThe company’s budget is $250 million, according to multiple reports. This is worrying for a film when talking about its path to success strictly through the box office. Typically, a film must earn at least double its box office budget to break even. While Red could succeed elsewhere, the $32 million opening weekend hurts the film’s chance of grossing the necessary $500 million at the box office.

Still, it’s worth noting that Red still had a top 20 opening weekend domestically for all 2024 films released up to this point. The original Christmas action movie utilized the star power of The Rock and Chris Evans to have a bigger opening weekend than The fallen guy, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Transformers One, Civil War, Smile 2, Argyleand more titles. Considering some of these films are among 2024’s most notable box office disappointments, Red Overcoming them puts you on the path to more overall success.

How Red One’s Opening Weekend Box Office Compares to Other Dwayne Johnson Films

Red One’s opening isn’t a huge anomaly for rock


Red One Dwayne Johnson as Callum Drift
Custom image by Yailin Chacon.

A $32M opening weekend may not be what Dwayne Johnson expected Red in the film’s conception, but this three-day performance alone is not a huge exception for him. It has undoubtedly had bigger opening weekends in the past thanks to Fast and Furious sequences, Jumanji: The Next Levelor Moanaand Moana 2 will probably give you another massive new input on the higher side of your outputs. But RedThe opening weekend box office is comparable to most of its other original or new franchises.

Rock’s Highest Opening Weekends

Film

Domestic Opening

The Fate of the Furious (2017)

US$98.7 million

Fast and Furious 6 (2013)

US$97.3 million

Five quick (2011)

US$86.1 million

Black Adam (2022)

US$67 million

Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw (2019)

US$60 million

Jumanji: The Next Level (2019)

US$59.2 million

Moana (2016)

US$56.6 million

Santo André (2015)

US$54.5 million

GI Joe: Retaliation (2013)

US$40.5 million

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (2017)

US$36.1 million

The Rock has had several other films open in a comparable range, such as Red. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle it earned just $4 million more before grossing more than $400 million domestically and nearly $1 billion worldwide. The Scorpion King, Fury, Central Intelligenceand Jungle Cruise opened in the $30 to $36 million rangeand everything but The Scorpion King grossed more than US$200 million worldwide. This does RedOpening looks less bleak for Dwayne Johnson as he’s still a league above Skyscraper, Baywatch, Herculesand DC League of Super-Pets – their worst openings of the last decade.

How Red One’s Opening Weekend Box Office Compares to Other Christmas Movies

Christmas movies usually don’t have big performers on their opening weekend


Red One Santa and Callum walking in the mall

Despite the film’s action focus Red is still classified as a Christmas film thanks to its very early setting, story, and characters. This is notable for the film when discussing box office, especially since Amazon MGM’s decision to release it a full month before Christmas raised some eyebrows. Red is not even close to being the highest-grossing new Christmas film after its opening weekend, and its opening weekend alone still lags well behind the live-action and animated films starring the Grinch, which are some of the biggest Christmas movie box office hits.

The film surpassed Christmas classics that grossed hundreds of millions of dollars at the box office and started franchises

Taking a look at other notable Christmas movies and their box office performances, RedOpening weekend perhaps looks better than before. Removing both Grinch movies, the only Christmas movie with a bigger opening weekend than The Rock’s new movie is Elf. This is a notable achievement for Dwayne Johnson and his holiday action film, as it makes Redopening weekend the fourth greatest Christmas movie of all time. The film surpassed Christmas classics that grossed hundreds of millions of dollars at the box office and started franchises in some cases.

Film

Domestic Opening

The Grinch (2018)

US$67.5 million

How the Grinch Stole Christmas (2000)

US$55 million

Elf (2003)

US$32.1 million

Red (2024)

US$32 million

Home Alone 2: Lost in New York (1992)

US$31.1 million

Four Christmases (2008)

US$31 million

A Christmas song (2009)

US$30 million

Daddy’s House 2 (2017)

US$29.6 million

Santa Claus 2 (2002)

US$29 million

The Polar Express (2004)

US$23.3 million

Die Hard 2 (1990)

US$21.7 million

Christmas with the Kranks (2004)

US$21.5 million

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (2018)

US$20.3 million

In addition to claiming Elf equally, Dwayne Johnson’s film ends its opening weekend on the same level as Home Alone 2: Lost in New York, Four Christmases, A Christmas song, Daddy’s House 2and Santa Claus 2. It outperformed other action films set at Christmas, such as Die Hard 2 ($21.7 million) and Violent night ($13.4 million). RedOpening weekend box office is also higher than that of franchise newcomers Santa Claus ($19.3 million) and Alone at home ($17 million). So in terms of battling your rivals for the holiday season, RedThe box office is on the higher side of history.

Red One’s opening weekend is a sign that it could be more successful at the box office

Audiences are really enjoying Red One


The Red One cast together

Despite the similarities RedWith its opening weekend split with other Dwayne Johnson-starring vehicles and Christmas films, the film’s overall box office performance still needs help to become a success thanks to its $250 million budget. The smoothest opening weekend and RedNegative reviews may lead to some believing that the film is also doomed to failure. However, the Dwayne Johnson film received some news during its opening weekend that there is reason for hope that strong box office could be on the horizon.

This is due to the film’s audience reception and CinemaScore – a survey where audiences rate their viewing experience of a film with alphabetical scores. The film’s poor Rotten Tomatoes scores with critics didn’t stop audiences from checking out the holiday action adventure, and most of them actually enjoyed their time. RedThe company’s CinemaScore is an A-while its Popcornmeter (formerly known as Audience Score) on Rotten Tomatoes is 90%. This could give the film positive word of mouth with casual audiences, allowing the film’s box office to gain momentum as the holiday season heats up.

What Red One’s Opening Weekend Means for Dwayne Johnson’s Future

It’s Still a Notable Box Office Draw


Dwayne Johnson shaking in Red One

Seeing a $32 million opening weekend versus a $250 million budget isn’t ideal for Dwayne Johnson, especially after controversial reports about his alleged on-set behavior leading to increased costs. However, delving into his story as a protagonist shows that Redbox office performance is quite normal for him. It would have been nice for everyone involved if the film proved to be an exception that drew crowds, but history suggests that this only really happens with The Rock when established franchises are involved.

Since Red is an original idea with franchise aspirations, the film’s opening weekend is a solid one for Johnson. This shows that the public couldn’t get enough of him and they are still willing to go to the theater to see a film where he is the main attraction. The biggest lesson to be learned is the growing budgets your projects involve. If Red was made for a fraction of the cost reportedly charged, the film’s $32 million opening weekend and nearly $100 million global gross would already be viewed in a much more positive light.

This is intriguing considering what Dwayne Johnson has in terms of upcoming films. In addition Moana 2With release imminent just before Thanksgiving 2024, he’s determined to make The crushing machine for A24 and Benny Safdie, the live action Moana remake, two more Fast and Furious films and several other long-term projects. There is clearly no hesitation in the Hollywood world about doing business with Johnson. This should continue with major theatrical and streaming releases, but if one Red what sequel happens remains to be seen. The box office will be an essential factor, but not the only one.

Red One’s box office won’t fully determine whether it will be a success


Red One's Chris Evans appears shocked by the money
Custom image by Brennan Klein

It’s easy to look Redthe opening weekend box office and its budget and immediately declare the film a disappointment, a flop, a bomb, etc. That would be fair if the film’s theatrical performance was the only thing that mattered when it came to the film making back its $250 million budget – but it’s not. Amazon MGM has more leeway in this scenario because of the film’s inevitable release on Prime Video. Put THR, “Amazon insists its business model is different and powered by subscribers and not just box office receipts.”

This is notable for Redwhich should arrive on Prime Video sometime in 2025 based on projections. There’s a chance that the Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans film will attract new subscribers, which could be more valuable to Amazon MGM than selling a few extra tickets in theaters. The studio has taken a unique approach among streamers in this field, as it is willing to give films theatrical releases (unlike Netflix) and has a large subscriber base to turn films into streaming hits later on.

Amazon MGM’s internal data will be what helps them determine Red it’s a success

Since there is a lot more ambiguity in the streaming space when it comes to audience data and any metrics to help determine a film’s popularity and success, Amazon MGM’s internal data will be what helps them determine Red It’s a success at the end of the day. This might be less important if RedThe box office proves to have strong legs and takes the film to the range of US$300 million – or more – worldwide. That might be enough for Amazon to look at the film in a positive light after considering its likely streaming success.

Sources: Mojo Box Office, THR

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