Oscar 2025 Best Director Predictions: Nominees and Winners

The best director race for the Oscars 2025 includes some notable directors who have yet to win in the category, as well as some past winners hoping to cause an upset. The 2025 awards season has a very different group of Best Director contenders compared to 2024. While Martin Scorsese and Christopher Nolan were the top two choices to win, this new year is a more open competition. There are big directors in the mix thanks to massive sequels, but a crop of up-and-coming Hollywood filmmakers are also trying to break through at the Academy.

Predicting the five nominees for Best Director is not a task that exists in a vacuum, as nominations for every category at the 2025 Oscars play an important role in figuring out which films are coming out on top. It is often these strong contenders that can bring the credited director into the Best Director race. This draws attention to the best picture films slated for 2025, such as anora, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérezand much more. The overall nomination potential for these titles is an important factor in Screen speechThe predicted nominations for Best Director and winner of the 2025 Oscar.

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The next directors in line

Several directors are still in contention

With a lot of time left before Oscar nominations announced on January 17, 2025several directors could still get a nomination. James Mangold (A complete stranger) and Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing) are among those linked to potential Best Picture nominees looking to enter the race. Still, the expected list of nominees has changed a lot. Robert Zemeckis (Here) and Steve McQueen (Blitz) have won in the category before, but the prospects of securing real nominations are low. Pedro Almodóvar (The room next door), Pablo Larraín (Maria) and Coralie Fargeat (The substance) are also hopeful.

The biggest change from the previous update is the fall of Ridley Scott. Once predicted as a potential Best Director winner due to the legacy aspect of what it would mean for his career, that was before anyone had seen Gladiator II. Now that the film has been released, there isn't the same level of appreciation as the original. What currently leaves Scott out of the Best Director race from my perspective. He is losing all the ground he had while Payal Kapadia (Everything we imagine as light), Mike Leigh (Hard truths), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) and others gain momentum.

It would also be a mistake to completely ignore Jon M. Chu's chances of getting a Best Director nomination. EvilBest Picture's rise could propel it and other aspects of the film to Oscar glory. After all, he's already secured a Best Director award from the Nation Board of Review, so there's a chance he could also enter the Oscar race and knock out one of the currently predicted nominees.

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Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two

He was snubbed by the first film

Denis Villeneuve is still among the favorites for the Best Director nomination in 2025 after Dune: Part Two – but his strength on one point is less clear than it seemed. The director has no shortage of supporters in Hollywood, but he was still surprisingly snubbed from the category in 2022 for the first film. Dune 2 showed Villeneuve becoming an even greater master of his craft, delivering a sci-fi epic for the ages. Academy voters now have a chance to rectify their earlier snub and recognize the excellent work he did in the sequel.

This would be Denis Villeneuve's second nomination for Best Director, if it happens. He was nominated in 2017 for Arrival but lost to Damien Chazelle by La La Terra. Getting the nomination would be a great sign for Dune 2Oscar chances in general, but whether it can actually lead Villeneuve to a category win is a different question. Villeneuve was noticeably absent from the 2025 Golden Globe nominations for his work. While the Globes rarely completely align with the Academy's Best Director nominations, the lack is still a blow to Villeneuve's resume.

THE plans for Dune 3 It could also hurt Villeneuve's chances of winning. Dune 2 was previously receiving comparisons with The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and how the Academy showered Peter Jackson's film with nominations and wins as a way to celebrate the entire trilogy. Since Dune 2 It's now confirmed that this won't be the end of Villeneuve's time on Arrakis, the Academy may wait until the trilogy is finished to give it recognition akin to one of Hollywood's best modern franchises.

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Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez

Emilia Pérez is a big Oscar candidate

Following Emilia PérezFollowing its premiere at Cannes and acquisition by Netflix, the film gained traction at screenings at Telluride and Toronto before debuting on the streaming service in November. Much attention was paid to the work of the three women leaders, but Audiard's direction did not go unnoticedputting him squarely in contention for Best Director at the 2025 Oscars. The bold approach he took to mixing genres, shooting scenes, and getting incredible performances from his cast are all reasons he could make the cut.

Audiard currently doesn't have many precursors that would help point to him beating the competition by a win, nor does he have a strong history with the Academy. Your movie The Prophet was nominated for Best International Feature Film in 2010, but his direction was not directly recognized. This makes your selection here more a demonstration of faith in Emilia Pérez as a legitimate Oscar contender across the board. But now that he has a Golden Globe nomination for the film, his Oscar chances are greatly increased.

With Emilia Pérez Arguably best positioned to win Best Supporting Actress for Zoe Saldaña, Jacques Audiard could be a chance to further recognize the film. It may also help that Netflix is ​​supporting the film now. The streaming service has helped Jane Campion, Martin Scorsese, Alfonso Cuarón, Adam McKay and David Fincher score Best Director nominations in recent years. As Netflix's Biggest Awards Candidate in 2025the impulse to Emilia Pérez it must be expansive and keep Audiard in the race.

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Edward Berger – Conclave

Berger has a history with the Academy

Edward Berger has emerged as a strong contender for Best Director at the 2025 Oscars thanks to Conclavegeneral reception. Although previously considered more out of the running, the film is seen as one of the year's best, and Berger's direction is one of the main reasons why. The film's overall position in the 2025 Oscar race further boosts its chances, and the impact of its 2025 Golden Globe nomination for Best Director also helps.

This would be Edward Berger's first Oscar nomination for Best Director. However, he knows the Oscars well in general. He was nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay for All Quiet on the Western Front in 2023. This was one of the film's impressive nine Oscar nominations, and it won four, including Best International Feature Film. Now that he's abandoned the war film genre for what is essentially a religious thriller, Berger could ride the wave of praise for Conclave for a Best Director nomination.

While Conclave isn't our predicted Best Picture winner, its likelihood of being nominated is a strong point for Berger. Best Director nominees are commonly associated with films that receive Best Picture nominations. The Academy has become even more willing to give Best Director to someone other than the director of the Best Picture winner of the last 12 years. The possibility of Best Director and Best Picture splitting the result could help someone like Berger win.

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Sean Baker – Anora

He Directed a Best Picture Pioneer

anora is considered the favorite to win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars, so it shouldn't come as a surprise that the director Sean Baker is seriously in contention for Best Director. He's been on the brink of awards contention for a few years now, thanks to films like tangerine, The Florida Projectand Red Rocket. But after these films only received one Oscar nomination between them, anora appears to be the film the Academy will take most seriously, which is expected to include a nomination for Sean Baker for Best Director.

The arguments in favor of Sean Baker's nomination and possible victory are currently based largely anorais in Oscar circles and a pretty big win at Cannes. anora won the Palme d'Or, the festival's main prize. This is notable to Baker because the directors of three of the last four Palme d'Or-winning films have received Oscar nominations: Bong Joon-ho (Parasite), Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall). Of these three, Bong Joon-ho was the only one to win Best Director at the Oscars.

The biggest reason he could win is if anora is the ultimate winner for Best Picture. Oscar winners for Best Director and Best Picture equaled three films from the last five yearsincluding the last two years with Everything everywhere at the same time and Oppenheimer. Overall, winners get it right 69 out of 96 times; that's a 71% match rate. Now that he's also been nominated for a Golden Globe for his work, Baker could be on his way to a Best Director win.

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Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

Won the Silver Lion in Venice

Brady Corbet could receive his first Oscar nomination in 2025 thanks to your work The Brutalist. Overseeing a historical epic lasting more than three hours is no easy task, but analysis of The Brutalist show that Corbet navigated the story well and executed it in a way that wasn't overbearing for the audience. It's a very different film Oppenheimer or Flower Moon Assassinsbut both films are recent examples of the Academy applauding a director's work on a sprawling epic, so perhaps Corbet can follow in the footsteps of Nolan and Scorsese.

In terms of his winning resume, Brady Corbet already has a potential leg up on the competition thanks to the Venice Film Festival. The BrutalistThe release of at the festival earned a Golden Lion nomination, but Corbet won the Silver Lion – Venice version for Best Director. He defeated hopeful candidates like Luca Guadagnino (Queer), Pedro Almodóvar (The room next door), Pablo Larraín (Maria), Todd Phillips (Joke: Folie à Deux), Halina Reijn (Little baby), Justin Kurzel (The Order) and Walter Salles (I'm still here). This already puts you ahead of many colleagues.

It's important to note that the Silver Lion isn't always a direct sign that a director will receive a Best Director nomination, let alone win it all. Since 2010, only one director has won the Silver Lion and then been nominated for Best Director: Jane Campion for The power of the dog. Campion notably won the category in 2022, but the Academy rarely aligns with Venice's choice for Best Director. With Golden Globe and Film Independent Spirit Awards nominations also secured, he could emerge as the Oscar'way to celebrate the achievement that is The Brutalist​​​​​​.