Ariana Grande Is Wicked’s Best Shot for an Acting Oscar, Building on This Impressive 4-Film Trend Dating Back to 2002

The long awaited Evil the adaptation has finally arrived – half of it, at least – and is ready to light up the box office and enter the awards race in a major way. Early signs point to a huge success for the film directed by John M. Chu, starring Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande as Elphaba and Glinda. EvilThe box office could very well reach the billion-dollar mark by the end of its run and the film is also receiving praise from critics and audiences.

Box office magic and positive critical reception are exactly what Evil needs to make an impact and Universal Pictures is launching a robust campaign that will see the film compete in a number of below-the-line categories, the place where it could find the most success. However, with Grande campaigning in the Supporting Actress category despite her arguably being a co-lead, Evil could see his chances in that above-the-line category increase significantly.

Supporting stars in musicals fared better than their leads

Four have won so far this century

No musical has won Best Picture since Chicago in 2002 and, despite an open race, it seems unlikely that Evil could be next. It’s just the first part of a two-part adaptation, so voters, consciously or not, will assume they will have the opportunity to pay homage to the entire work in 2026, when Perverse Part 2 will compete. Of the musicals that have impressed awards voters this century, four won Best Supporting Actress trophies while largely missing out on the other categories:

Zeta-Jones was the only star of Chicago to receive an acting award, although Renée Zellweger, Queen Latifah and John C. Reilly were nominated. dream girls it didn’t even receive a Best Picture nomination, with Hudson and Eddie Murphy being the only nominees in the above-the-line categories. Hugh Jackman was nominated alongside Hathaway for Les Misérableswhich earned a Best Picture nomination. Finally, DeBose’s trophy is the one for Steven Spielberg’s 2021 remake of West Side Historythe same trophy that Rita Moreno won for playing Anita in the original Best Picture-winning film.

Ariana Grande’s chances of winning an Oscar

Grande has some direct competition

Evil isn’t the only musical competing this year, which makes things a little more complicated. The Netflix controversy Emilia Pérez hit the streamer after a long festival run that positioned the film as a major contender. Zoe Saldaña will campaign for Supporting Actress in the film that also stars Karla Sofía Gascón and Selena Gomez. If Emilia Pérez may survive the discourse wars, may well be a major player when the Oscars eventually reveal the winners in March, although if Academy voters are swayed one way or another, Saldaña could surpass Grande purely because of the film’s authenticity in the festival.

Grande is not a significant competitor to Evil still and Saldaña is still the category leader, but it’s entirely possible that Big will eclipse Saldaña somewhere on the way to the 2025 ceremony. With the Best Actress field particularly competitive this year, the pop star could be the film’s best chance. to be recognized for their performance. There is still a long way to go and there is still plenty of chance for the race to change once again.