Important dates and how they could impact the 2025 Oscar race

Awards season it never really ends. While the Oscars typically mark the conclusion of one season, the next has already begun by the time the Academy hands out the Golden Men. Awards prediction has become a cottage industry in its own right, a way to gamify the Oscar race by determining who has the best chance of claiming victory on Hollywood’s biggest night.

To predict these things accurately, experts look at major film festivals, box office performance, and possibly awards precursors to see which films are gathering the right amount of momentum to propel them to awards glory. To gain that momentum, studios launch For Your Consideration (FYC) campaigns based on their strongest competitors that can push a film across the finish line. Below, we dive into the annual awards season cycle, pointing out the key events that could influence the Oscar race.

Next year’s awards season begins before last year’s Oscars even air

The first competitors begin to become known in January

Although awards season begins to kick into high gear once fall begins, January is when the first contenders for next season begin to emerge, thanks to the Sundance Film Festival, which takes place every January. In previous years, films like Manchester by the sea, Call me by your name, leaveand Past Lives all premiered at the Park City, Utah, festival, often more than a year before competing at the Oscars.

This year, the Sundance slate was a little lighter. While some films from this year’s festival may appear in precursor awards administered by individual critics circles and associations, few Sundance 2024 films appear poised to make an Oscar splash. Jesse Eisenberg wrote, directed and stars A real painwhich premiered at the festival and will likely compete in several major categories, including Best Original Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor for Kieran Culkin, and Best Picture.

About a month after Sundance, the Berlin International Film Festival (also known as Berlinale) takes place in February, showcasing a number of important international films that could become big players. However, it was only in May, at the Cannes Film Festival, where other initial candidates made their debut. Cannes is perhaps the most prestigious of all festivals where international films and Hollywood blockbusters premiere side by side. A rapturous reception at Cannes can give a film the boost it needs to soar through the rest of the year to awards glory.

See this year’s controversial Netflix film Emilia Pérez which premiered at Cannes to rapturous reviews before winning the Best Actress award at the festival, where the jury led by Greta Gerwig gave the honor to four actresses – Karla Sofía Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez and Adriana Paz. Emilia Pérez It faced some backlash after its release, but it’s still a major player in many categories this year.

Sean Baker anora it also premiered at Cannes this year, winning the Palme d’Or and garnering praise at several other festivals, including Tellruide and Toronto. The star of that film, Mikey Madison, is the current favorite for Best Actress, but the film could play a role in many other categories. It’s not always easy for a film to maintain momentum throughout the year, but as awards season takes shape, there are plenty of theatrical releases and films from Sundance and Cannes that manage to make a big enough impact to warrant continued campaigning when autumn arrives. .

Sundance, Berlinale and Cannes are not direct indicators of the Oscars. Just because a film does well at these festivals doesn’t mean it will end up on Academy member ballots. To take Titan for example, a French body horror film that won the Palme d’Or in 2021. That film didn’t even make the list for Best International Feature Film. Still, these festivals can be a good indicator of what moviegoers, critics and industry insiders will be keeping an eye on throughout the year, leading up to the big ceremony.

Awards season really starts in September

From there, it’s a race to the finish line

There are three major fall festivals that kick off awards season: the Venice International Film Festival, the Telluride Film Festival, and the Toronto International Film Festival. Here, top films from Sundance, Berlinale and Cannes may reappear to remind audiences of their power, but these events often feature leading contenders who will fight for awards glory.

More often than not, many Best Picture nominees end up making the rounds at at least one of these fall festivals, and it seems safe to say the same this year. The 2024 editions of these festivals had debuts from major competitors such as The Brutalist, The Room Next Door, Conclave, September 5th, I’m Still Here, and The Wild Robotwhile competitors previously mentioned as Anora, Emília Pérez, and A real pain also tracked.

Because these festivals are attended by many industry professionals — stars, critics, behind-the-scenes folks like directors, producers, and more — the response to films from these festivals can indicate where the temperature is for the industry, such as narratives that will continue throughout the season begin to take shape. As early December rolls around and critics groups begin announcing their lists and nominations, these narratives have coalesced into FYC campaigns with the full weight of the studio behind them.

Critics groups are often the first to hand out awards and honors, which can boost a film’s profile before voting begins for industry groups such as screenwriters, actors, directors and producer associations. Major critics groups include the New York Film Critics Circle, the African American Film Critics Association, and the Critics’ Choice Association. The tastes of these groups don’t always align with that of the Academy, as there is often minimal overlap between the industry and them, but it can be a good indication of where general feelings lie.

Industry awards typically take place early in the year before the Oscars, with the Writers’ Guild, Screen Actors’ Guild, Producers’ Guild and others announcing their nominees and eventual winners. These are more accurate indicators due to industry overlap — many people in these guilds are also members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which hosts the Oscars. The BAFTAs, the awards ceremony held by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts, is another accurate indicator of the Oscars, often due to its proximity to that ceremony and the overlap between the two groups.

Despite year-round predictions, nothing is guaranteed, but that’s what makes it fun. There were plenty of surprises at the Oscars when the ceremony inevitably rolled around. It’s impossible to predict the voting trends of the nearly 10,000 unique members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, but people will keep trying, and more often than not, someone will get it right.

Below, check out a full calendar of the next key dates for the 2025 awards season, which culminates with the Oscars on March 2, 2025.