THE 2024 box office is on track to break a recent Hollywood trend following the exceptional box office performance of 2023. As of early November, only two 2024 releases have broken the $1 billion global box office barrier, Inside Out 2 ($1.697 billion) and Deadpool and Wolverine ($1.337 billion), which is consistent with the 2023 global box office led by Barbie ($1.446 billion) and The Super Mario Bros. movie ($1.362 billion). 2024 Despicable Me 4 ($967.5 million) is essentially the Oppenheimer ($975.6 million) from this year’s board results with almost identical numbers. However, there’s more than meets the eye about 2024’s domestic box office after Revenue of around US$9 billion in 2023.
While 2023 will have its fair share of box office flops, the year as a whole featured an incredible slate of blockbusters and franchise sequels that helped inflate its year-end revenue, which was up 30.5% compared to 2022. US domestic box office hit $9 billion in 2023 for the first time since 2019, which racked up $11.3 billion in comparison. The domestic box office has exceeded $10 billion every year since 2009a streak that was broken by the disastrous $2.1 billion total in 2020. A slow recovery at the US box office was to be expected due to the effects of the global pandemic, which has seen a substantial increase every year since 2020, until now.
|
Year |
Domestic Box Office |
Film number 1 |
|---|---|---|
|
2024 |
US$6,802,253,425 |
Inside Out 2 |
|
2023 |
US$8,908,478,987 |
Barbie |
|
2022 |
US$7,369,914,732 |
Top Gun: Maverick |
|
2021 |
US$4,483,016,589 |
Spider-Man: No Way Home |
|
2020 |
US$2,113,386,800 |
Bad Boys for Life |
|
2019 |
$11,363,361,624 |
Avengers: Endgame |
|
2018 |
US$11,892,160,011 |
Black Panther |
2024 will likely be the first time since 2020. Domestic box office has declined year over year
While not impossible, the odds are against the 2024 domestic box office
With current domestic box office revenue of $6,802,253,425, 2024 is projected to finish below the 2023 year-end total of $8,908,478,987. While there are several releases in November and December that may outperform at the domestic box office, such as Gladiator II, Wicked: Part Oneand Moana 2All of these films would essentially have to be among the best-performing films of the year in 2024 to surpass 2023’s roughly $9 billion total. While 2021 was better than 2020, 2022 was better than 2021 and 2023 was. Better than 2022, 2024 is currently more than $2 billion behind 2023’s total. It is unlikely that it will be able to make up for that shortfall from the last month and a half.
A potential path for 2024’s domestic box office to continue the upward momentum since 2020 would require Gladiator II to surpass its global estimate of around US$500 million. Evilwhich is currently expected to gross between $125-135 million in its opening weekend alone, would have to aim for over $400 million domestically for the conversation to begin. Other box office hits, Moana 2 and The Lion King: Mufasawould have to achieve massive numbers and surpass the national totals of its predecessors, Moana ($248.7 million) and The Lion King ($543.6 million). It’s not completely impossible, but the odds are against the 2024 domestic box office.
Why 2024’s Domestic Box Office Will Be Lower Than 2023’s
The 2023 box office was saturated with franchise releases and big-budget sequels
2023 has had several films surpass their initial estimates, especially Oppenheimer and Barbiewhich has notably become a combined cultural phenomenon. Briefly, 2023 has had a generally more accumulated list of franchise releases and sequels which were postponed due to the pandemic. Just a few of the franchise’s sequels releasing in 2023 include Mission: Impossible – Reckoning, Fast, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Versewhich raised more than US$500 million globally. On the other hand, the 2024 domestic box office was hampered mainly by further delays and underperforming major titles.
Other notable 2023 franchise releases include Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, Transformers: Rise of the BeastsJohn Wick: Chapter 4, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, Meg 2: The Trench, Indiana Jones and the Fate Dial, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Birds and Snakesand Creed III. Although several of the titles underperformed (Aquaman, Indiana Jones) and some performed better than projected (Mega 2, John Wick), the main conclusion is how saturated the 2023 box office was with franchise releases. 23 2023 titles grossed more than $300 million at the global box office compared to 13 launches for 2024, which should be closer to 17 or 18 by the end of the year.
2025 should more than make up for 2024’s underwhelming box office
Avatar 3 and Jurassic World Rebirth should be big hits
All things considered, 2024 performed quite well considering the number of fewer franchise releases it had to offer. Even if its domestic total only exceeds $8 billion, it still shows relatively positive and healthy progression, even if it doesn’t have the year-end total to back it up. The 2025 slate is huge, with more franchise releases and other big-name properties, so it should theoretically surpass 2024 and 2023 based on early projections. Avatar: Fire and Ash will certainly help in that effort, as will blockbuster releases like James Gunn’s next film Superman film, Zootopia 2, Mission: Impossible 8and Jurassic World Rebirth.