UPDATE: 2024/10/06 08:28 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN
Joker 2 crashes below original $42-47 million projections with $40 million debut
This article was originally written Saturday AM and was updated Sunday AM with altered box office projections (in bold), a full chart and further analysis.
Joker: Folie à Deux is expected to debut with a total less than half of the original installment. The DC comic book movie, which re-teams director Todd Phillips and star Joaquin Phoenix, is a sequel to 2019’s JokerWhich made over $1 billion at the worldwide box office against a roughly $70 million budget. The sequel, which features multiple musical numbers and co-stars Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn, has a price tag more than two-and-a-half times as large as reported. Joker: Folie à Deux Budget is $190 million.
Per VarietyAs of Sunday morning, Joker: Folie à Deux is projected to take in a three-day opening weekend total of $40 million In the cozy box office. That’s the total reported by Warner Bros., although other estimates put it at $39 million. Either way, that falls well below initial industry projections of about $70 million and even Saturday morning’s projected range of $42 to $47 million. This is Significantly less than half of the $96.2 million the original 2019 movie earned in its domestic debutMaking his budget back over the course of a single weekend.
While Joker 2 After taking number 1 on the domestic chartThe gap between the total and the three-day grosses of the movies below on the chart is significantly smaller than expected. In fact, the number 2 titles, the holder DreamWorks animated title The wild robotearned just under half of the new DC comic book movie’s debut during its second weekend with a haul of $18.7 million, representing a fairly solid week-over-week drop of just 48%. See the full domestic Top 5 below:
# |
Title |
3-day total |
cumulative (domestic) |
---|---|---|---|
1 |
Joker: Folie à Deux |
$40 million |
$40 million (Weekend 1) |
2 |
The wild robot |
$18.7 million |
$63.9 million (Weekend 2) |
3 |
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice |
$10.3 million |
$265.5 million (Weekend 5) |
4 |
Transformers one |
$5.3 million |
$47.2 million (Weekend 3) |
5 |
Speak no evil |
$2.8 million |
$32.6 million (Weekend 4) |
Except Joker: Folie à DeuxEvery title on the domestic Top 5 was also on the chart the previous weekend. Making room for the comic book movie, the previous number 4 title – The Indian Hit Devara: Part 1 featuring Rrr Star NT Rama Rao Jr. – Fell out of the Top 10 completely. Outside the Top 10, Francis Ford Coppola’s sci-fi passion project is also falling fast. After the disappointment Megalopolis Opening weekend it debuted at No. 6, it fell to No. 10 with an estimated $1.05 million, representing a shattering 73% drop.
Two middle-level releases that opened opposite Joker are also populating the rest of the domestic Top 10. One is The YouTuber-led feature Sam and Colby: The Legends of the Paranormal In number 6 With $2 million from just 302 theaters. Meanwhile, the Wonder Sequel White Bird quietly fluttered to No. 9 with an estimated $1.4 to $1.7 million from 980 theaters. The movie did staggeringly well with audiences, earning a + CinemaScore and a 98% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, so it could potentially climb higher in the coming weeks if it becomes a word-of-mouth hit.
What this opening weekend means for Joker: Folie à Deux
The movie may still break even
This disappointing opening weekend overall is likely the result of the overwhelmingly negative reaction to the movie. In addition to Joker: Folie à Deux Reviews Earning the film a 32% score from critics on Rotten Tomatoes, it has a matching audience score of 32% from more than 1,000 verified users. The movie did Scored poorly across the board on popular review platformsCompounding its unfortunate D+ CinemaScore with a 4.1 out of 10 on Meteoritic, a 5.3 out of 10 on IMDb and a 2.5 out of 5 on Letterboxd.
That might be just enough for the movie to break even…
However, this Does not necessarily mean that the movie will be a failure. While it seems unlikely to build strong word-of-mouth viewership, if it continues to grow in proportion to the original, it could eventually climb to $448 million or higher worldwide. That might be just enough for the movie to break even if it doesn’t crater in its second weekend and is buoyed by the Joker: Folie à Deux Cast earning Oscar nominations in early 2025. According to Varietys box office report, sources say the movie’s break-even point is likely to be somewhere around $450 million.
Our Take on the Weekend Box Office
Joker 2’s number 1 status is already under threat
While the schedule for the second weekend of October is largely clear of blockbusters due to studios steering away Joker: Folie à DeuxIt means that The position of the sequel at number 1 on the chart is shaky at best. While it may still claim the top slot during its second weekend in theaters, especially if the movies below it on the chart have similar week-to-week drops, it seems very likely that it will be toppled from its perch in two weeks by The upcoming Smile 2A sequel to a hit that became the highest-grossing horror movie of 2022.
Source: Variety